Full Monte is a state-of-the-art risk analysis add-in for Microsoft Project™ (2007 and above). Project plans are only as good as the estimates used to construct them, and these estimates are subject to uncertainty. Ignoring this uncertainty is a recipe for project failure. The completion date projected by a deterministic plan has at best a 50% chance of being met, and often much less due to a phenomenon known as merge bias. But If you have a deadline to meet, it makes sense to adopt a plan which gives you say a 90% chance of success. The deterministic schedule gives you no way to handle this. In fact, the only thing certain about a deterministic schedule is that it will be wrong. Full Monte addresses this problem by replacing deterministic estimates of task durations with probability distributions, based on user-supplied 2- or 3-point estimates. (This may seem onerous but is actually easier than providing a single-point estimate. See Estimating Distribution Parameters). Full Monte uses a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to generate probabilistic estimates of the project finish date, as well as costs and all intermediate dates and floats. This allows you to answer questions such as “what is the probability that my project will be finished by the deadline” which is a more sensible question than “when will my project be finished” because any sufficiently precise answer to the latter is bound to be wrong. Additional features of Full Monte include modeling correlations, and branching based either upon time (conditional branching) or upon chance (probabilistic branching). Full Monte also offers flexible user-definable graphical and tabular reporting and export to CSV format for Excel.
Full Monte™ Features
Barbecana’s risk analysis software includes the following features:
- Support for normal, lognormal, beta, triangular, and uniform distributions.
- Probabilistic and conditional branching
- Unlimited correlations between task durations
- Fast and comprehensive sensitivity analysis, including “tornado” chart
See all features